East
Timor and Climate Change: Security and Sustainable Development
Summary of full paper[1]
Merrilyn Wasson
International Human
Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Program: UNESCO/ICSU
1.
Introduction:
Sustainable Development in Changing Climatic Conditions
It is
a reality of the 21st Century that planning for sustainable
development must take into account the changes to the Earth’s climate and
ecosystems that are the result of non-sustainable emissions of greenhouse gases
into the atmosphere. The projections are stark. Carbon dioxide is the most prevalent and problematic of the
greenhouse gases. It has now reached a concentration in the earth’s atmosphere
that is approximately 66% higher than at any time during the existence of
humans on the planet. Much smaller increases in CO2 in the past
historical record have resulted in significant disturbances to the planet’s
climate systems.
The
international and scientific consensus is that climate change is a reality,
which is already making an impact is supported by observable and predicted
trends.
Accordingly,
almost every nation has ratified the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) and accepted that:
§
climate
change is a reality and its effects are already noticeable and profound, and
§
climate
change is a serious threat to food and water security, and therefore to human
health and security, and
§
it
is therefore a hazard to economic growth and sustainable livelihoods.
Despite
this international consensus, the negotiation of the Protocol to the
Convention, which will commit industrialised nations to an average 6% reduction
on 1990 levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, broke down in November, 2000.
Negotiations will resume in mid 2001, in an attempt to resolve the disputed
details of the Kyoto Protocol.
This
delay in the negotiations gives East Timor the chance to contribute to the
debate on the controversial issues of the Protocol, an opportunity that should
be seized. For East Timor not only faces serious problems from climate change,
but the nation has much to gain from a strategy that simultaneously promotes
sustainable development and assists the island to adapt to the impacts of
climate change.
Funding
for sustainable development is an integral part of the Convention on Climate
Change and its Protocol. One financial provision of the Protocol, the Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM), is dedicated to promoting sustainable growth and
reducing greenhouse emissions in developing nations. A second provision, the
‘Adaptation and Mitigation Fund’ is for nations that are especially vulnerable
to the impact of climate change. East Timor will benefit from both sources of
funding.
2.0 The Vulnerability of East
Timor to Climate Change
2.1
Coastal Impacts: Rising Sea Level: Reduction in Fish Habitats:
East
Timor shares the vulnerability of all island nations to sea level rise that
accompanies the melting of the ice cover of Antarctica and the Arctic Polar ice
cap. That melting is underway.
One
early effect for East Timor will therefore be a shifting coastline and a
partial loss of the tidal ecosystems that are essential for fish breeding
habitats, most notably mangroves and seagrasses (Fox, Applegate and Wasson,
2000).
This
will be compounded by disintegration of coral ecosystems. Climate change is a major factor in the stress and rapid decline
of coral ecosystems throughout the globe.
The
coral ecosystems of the Arafura and Timor Seas and the Sunda Shelf are no
exception, and since the El Nino episode of 1997/98 have experienced some of
the worst bleaching and decline of all tropical coral reefs (Wilkinson et al
2000).
Mangroves, seagrasses and corals are important for another reason, they have the ability to ‘sink’ or reduce the concentration of carbon in the atmosphere. (Ayukai (ed.) 1998) When stressed or destroyed, however, they emit that carbon back into the atmosphere.
2.2
Climate Variability, Crops and Vegetation:
A
longer term impact of concern is the effect that climate variations will have
on agriculture.
As
climate variability is a feature of climate change, the global impact on food
security is of such concern that it is a major motivating factor in the
international acceptance of the need to reduce emissions and slow the pace of
Climate Change.
Where
the national or regional climate relies on a monsoon, the risk is greatest.
East Timor is one nation affected by monsoonal patterns.
It is
feared that in a time span of less that fifty years, the inability of flora and
fauna and crops to cope with climate variability will be a major problem, and
as a consequence, there will be a significant loss of forests and crops.
2.3
Increase in El Nino Frequency
In
common with Southeast Asia and the Pacific, East Timor and its closest
neighbours are affected by the droughts that accompany El Nino events. It is
now thought that the frequency and severity of El Nino events may be increased
by climate change. (CSIRO 1999).
Unfortunately
for all the nations affected by El Nino events, this may mean that the failure
of some tree and crop species to adapt to climate change may occur earlier than
predicted. As with the impact on the coastal ecosystems, the predicted changes
to the crops, tree species and biodiversity of East Timor is grim one.
Together, these projections present a bleak outlook for food and water security, health and sustainable livelihoods of the East Timorese population, unless strategies for sustainable development are found which also assist the nation to adapt to increased climate variations.
2.4 East Timor’s Contribution to Greenhouse Gas Emissions.
East Timor’s
contribution to global GHG emissions has almost certainly been negligible.
However, this
is about to change, as East Timor rightfully takes control of fossil fuel
sources in the area of the Timor gap and the Arafura that falls within the
nations Exclusive Economic Zone.
Production
and export of petroleum and liquid gas will increase East Timor’s national GHG
emissions. However, it also presents an opportunity to promote sustainable
development which also reduces carbon emissions, at least where the export of
liquid gas is concerned.
3.0 The Kyoto Protocol and its
Mechanisms for funding Sustainable Development
The Climate
Change Convention has two objectives: one is to reduce GHG emissions into the
atmosphere, the other is the promotion of Sustainable Development (Art. 2
UNFCCC, Preamble to the Kyoto Protocol).
It was at the
behest of the G77 bloc of developing nations that assistance with sustainable
economic growth became embedded in the Convention and its Protocol, as the
price for cooperation with GHG emission reduction. The Clean Development
Mechanism (Art. 12 of the Kyoto Protocol) is the means by which the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Protocol achieve the dual
objectives of reducing GHG emissions and promoting sustainable development.
3.1
The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in Summary
The
CDM is an investment by a private or public enterprise from an Annex 1 nation,
in a project in the host developing nation that provides the service of GHG
emission reduction. The host nation, company or community maintains full or
part ownership of the project and the profits from it, while the investor
receives credits for the GHG reductions.
CDM investment: Advantages for Developing Nations
§
As foreign
direct investment, CDM funding does not increase national debt, a fact that
makes it very acceptable form of investment for developing nations.
§
Approval
for the CDM project is at the discretion of the host nation, which is expected
to be able to direct investment into national priority areas.
§
The CDM
project must meet the criterion of sustainability and it is expected to provide
collateral socio-economic or ecological benefits.
3.3 The Adaptation Fund and East Timor
The Kyoto Protocol
envisages a tax on its ‘flexibility mechanisms’, including the CDM, Emissions
Trading and the Joint Implementation Mechanism. The purpose of this tax is to
establish the “Adaptation Fund” which will be used to assist developing nations
'particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change to meet
the costs of adaptation'. East Timor is clearly in the category of being
particularly vulnerable to adverse affects.
4.0
Sustainable Development Strategies for Climate change adaptation
The
options for sustainable development briefly outlined here are based on concepts
which have been applied in tropical developing island nations facing similar
risks and with some similarities in ecosystems. But there will be options
unique to the nation, and the CDM encourages each nation to work out its
priorities.
4.1 Liquid Gas Resources
As
discussed above, liquid gas is a source of CO2 emissions, but it is
a form of energy which emits much less than either coal or petroleum.
Therefore, replacing either coal or petroleum with liquid gas counts as an
emission reduction. Assuming that the Timor gap yields liquid gas as well as
petroleum, then East Timor will be benefiting both its own economy and security
and that of the globe by promoting the export of the liquid gas.
There
is a growing demand for liquid gas in the Asia Pacific region, driven by
climate concerns and by economic efficiency, so this strategy is certain to
yield positive results.
4.2 Sustainable Energy from Tides
East Timor may wish to pursue non-fossil fuel
energy sources, through either CDM investment in a sustainable energy project
or by the Adaptation fund. Tidal energy has long been an attractive option for
nations with substantial tidal variations; new technology makes this an even
more attractive, low costs and emission free energy option for islands.
4.3 Mangrove
Reforestation: CDM Investment with outstanding Socio-economic and Ecological
Collateral Benefits
Over
50% of the world's mangrove forests have been destroyed, (WRI 2000), and with
them a fish breeding habitat, a filter of soil carbon and a protector of other
habitats, notably sea grasses and coral reefs [Ayukai (ed.), 1998]. Without the
filter of mangroves, sediment from the coasts contribute to fish habitat
destruction, to the impoverishment of coastal communities, the poorest and most
vulnerable of socio-economic groups. Mangroves are essential to reversing fish
habitat loss, and to restoring the coastal fishing industries. Mangroves are
now regarded as a 'keystone species' for tropical coastal ecosystems. [Fox,
Applegate and Wasson (ed) 2000].
Of special significance to an island nation like East Timor is the ability of mangroves to store coastal sediment. There is now evidence that mangroves may also have a role in slowing and assisting coasts to adapt to sea level rise.
4.3.1 Carbon sequestration in mangrove
ecosystems, seagrasses and corals
The
carbon stock per unit area of the mangrove ecosystem is enormous, as the entire
mangrove ecosystem that acts as a carbon sink.
Permanent mangrove reforestation probably qualifies among the highest
yield form of sink sequestration.
4.3.2
Socio-economic Collateral Benefits from Mangrove Regeneration
The
ecological benefits discussed above will result in the restoration of the
livelihood of coastal fishing communities. This can occur immediately with the
employment of villages in the establishment phase of the mangrove reforestation
project. It will also contribute to the long term survival of the fishing
industry.
4.3 Reforestation
The
area available for reforestation and sustainable production forestry may be
limited in East Timor but is worth investigating as an option. Reforestation
and rehabilitation of degraded forests has the effect of sequestering carbon
from the atmosphere.
4.3.1 Rehabilitation of Degraded Forests: Ecological and Economic
Benefits
There
are differences between the ecological and socio-economic benefits from the
rehabilitation of severely degraded forest for selective, low impact logging
and the establishment of industrial plantations on afforested areas. In
general, the former provides more ecological collateral benefits including:
*
Improvement in water quality as a consequence of regrowth. This is one reason
why China is directing CDM investment into rehabilitation and reforestation
around river catchments.
*
Soil stabilisation and improved nutrient quality of soil biomass.
*
Qualified restoration of biodiversity. Since ecosystems are dynamic, it is
unlikely that the recovery of a forest will result in identical flora
composition, but it is likely to support an increase in both flora and fauna
biodiversity.
4.3.2
Plantations, Soil Conservation and Full Carbon Accounting
Single
species plantations produce less ecological side benefits, but have many
socio-economic benefits, in the form of employment and timber products for
domestic and global markets.
With
single species plantations, loss of soil can reduce the carbon sequestered by
the growing trees. As tropical soils are generally low in nutrients, repeated
growth cycles followed by heavy impact harvesting have had negative impacts on
soil quality, in addition to exacerbating the problem of soil run-off. Where
burning has been used to clear land for plantations, soil run-off increases
tenfold and the water retention capacity of the soil is reduced (Schweithelm,
1999).
As a
consequence of these problems, it is probable that assessing the certified
emission reductions (CER) of plantation sink projects will require the use of
'full carbon accounting', which offsets emissions from soils disturbed during
harvesting as against the sequestration and storage of the trees.
This
will encourage the use of soil conservation techniques at sensitive stages of
the project cycle, including mulching litter and placing it over the soil to
maintain organic carbon and other nutrients and re-planting the stock in the
mulch. The result is reduced run-off, little need for fertilizer and a net
reduction in soil emissions to complement the atmospheric emissions reductions
(Bruenig 1996).
In
summary, the contribution of CDM project investment to the long term
sustainability of forest ecosystems and to forest products for both the
domestic market and for exports has both ecological and socio-economic benefits
for East Timor, benefits that will be maximized if what is exported has value
added in the nation. However, controversy has surrounded CDM investment in
sustainable forestry, because of the ‘reversibility’ of forest projects (they
can become sources of emissions unless sustainable forestry is carefully practiced)
Uncertainty over the capacity of some species to adapt adds to the debate. Mangrove ecosystem rehabilitation is much
less controversial, as mangroves will usually be planted as the basis for other
commercial activities such as the restoration of fishing grounds and
mariculture.
Conclusion
East Timor is in a unique
position to base its economy on sustainable economic growth that enables the
island nation to adapt to and minimise the impact of climate change. As a
nation whose food, water and human security is very vulnerable to the risks of
sea level rise and extreme climate variability, East Timor should be able to
attract significant funding from the provisions in the Protocol to the Climate
Change Convention for greenhouse gas emission reducing sustainable development.
The existence of petroleum
and liquid gas in the Timor gap may well make East Timor a net emitter of
carbon, but it also gives future governments of Timor a unique opportunity to
put pressure on the Energy companies to maximise the use of liquid gas, as
fossil fuel with the lowest emissions per energy unit.
It also places the nation in
an excellent position to negotiate Clean Development Projects in other sectors
including mangrove and fish habitat rehabilitation, reforestation, plantations,
climate variation resistant crops and new tidal energy technologies. The
essential theme of all sustainable development is that it must take into
account, and minimise the impact of climate change.
References
Ayukai,
T. (ed) 1998 ‘Carbon Fixation and Storage in Mangroves’ Mangroves and Salt
Marshes Vol. 2, No. 4. December
1998.
CSIRO
Division of Atmospheric Research 1999 El Nino Frequency and Elevated CO2
.